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NFP previews: SG, Barclays, DB & HSBC estimates and thoughts

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The biggest US data point of the month, Non-Farm Payrolls, comes in at Friday 8.30am EST. This month’s data will be hurricane effected, so consensus is for a low headline number. Considering how strong the PMI’s were this week, a poor NFP can be shrugged off as transitory and the Fed can stick with the current rate path.

This month’s NFP estimates come in well below average.

Here’s what the banks have to say:

Société Générale:

  • Hurricane Harvey may have led to a decline in nonfarm payrolls in September, which would mark the first negative reading in seven years.
  • Quantifying the hurricane’s impact on job growth is fraught with uncertainty, but we suspect that Harvey’s impact was similar to the drag on payrolls seen in the wake of Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Barclays:

  • +75,000 headline forecast
  • Private payrolls +70,000
  • Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m & 2.6% y/y
  • Average weekly hours to remain unchanged at 34.4
  • Unemployment rate unchanged at 4.4%.
  • Informing our view are initial and continuing jobless claims, which have risen following the landfall of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Offsetting this to some degree are other factors like part-time employment for economic reasons and the employment diffusion index, which have shown improvement in recent months. 

Deutsche Bank:

  • +50,000 headline
  • +50,000 private
  • Unemployment rate at 4.4%, steady
  • In fact, the “weather workers” series within the Household survey should provide a reasonable sense of the magnitude of the hurricane related disruptions to the payroll data
HSBC:
  • +105,000 headline
  • Unemployment rate at 4.4%, steady
  • Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m and 2.6% y/y
  • The likely effects of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma on the national labour market data are difficult to predict.
  • In 2005, hundreds of thousands of people were displaced by Hurricane Katrina. Massive job losses in the region were readily apparent in the September and October 2005 employment reports.
  • In contrast, the Bureau of Labor Statistics assessed in 2012 that Hurricane Sandy did not have a substantive impact on its estimates for national employment.
  • Figures on weekly initial claims suggest that over 100,000 people have filed for unemployment insurance in Texas and Florida as a consequence of the recent disasters. However, the impact of the hurricanes on the September payroll data could end up being smaller, depending in part on how many of the affected persons worked or received pay for some portion of the relevant time period. 
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